MMM Weekend Update 6-9-13

Gold - The current ST and MT probabilities up or down look mixed at this time. For now the key pivot point is 1423.88, bullish above, bearish below.

I have done some recent time cycle and work and found some interesting measures.

The 21-22 month cycle has accounted for a few peak to peak spans. That same cycle is about to be hit again in June/July, this time as a potential peak to trough cycle.









June/July is a wide area of time. After sweeping for weekly time Fibos, the week starting July 14th and possibly 21st was hit with a few sweeps:









There is also a Full Moon on July 22nd. As we approach that July 14th and 21st weekly turn date window, I may be able to hone down the turn to a specific 3 day window after we get a little closer.


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Yen, Nikkei and SPX - Was the May 22nd top in equities easy to spot? I think so, here is how:

First, I posted this Ending Diagonal pattern back on April 28th:



On May 22 the topping process was deemed complete:



The pattern played out as expected:



The very night right after my May 22nd report to subscribers this happened in the Nikkei:



The SPX (S&P500) also posted a warning of a top and correction on May 22nd:



Using only the Elliot Wave theory and candlesticks, a significant top in USD/JPY and equity markets were able to be spotted and acted upon.

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All the best to you,
Quad G

MMM Weekend Update 5-26-13

Gold - Is currently navigating the previously mentioned support zone of 1310 to 1430. The initial dead cat bounce up to 1488 has now settled back down along with some of the volatility. While the price remains below 1440 to 1488, I suspect the trend will continue to move sideways and down. Above that zone allows a possible run up to 1520 to 1600.

In previous blog postings I have laid out the case for 1230 to 1280 being the next level of significant support and 850 to 1050 likely being bedrock generational support. However, a few other measurements seem to be pointing to the 1150ish level as possible support as well.





If the price actually falls to this level, I'll be on the look out for possible reversal patterns using Elliot Waves, Candlesticks and the QG3.

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Silver - Unlike Gold, Silver has yet to back test even a small portion of it's break-down. As positive divergences develop in the Oscillators (RSI(14), MACD), I suspect that this back test of the 26.00 level may be realized, possibly inside the next few months. But I highly doubt the first back-test will breach 26.00, a back-up for another run at it later (several months perhaps) is more likely to breach it. A contracting ending diagonal pattern (orange) would be very helpful in gauging a potential major bottom.



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HUI (miner index) - is starting to touch the top of some major LT support. Any further down and stock prices will reach into 'ridiculous' territory. Several senior dividend paying mining stocks now have P/Es in the teens and even single digits. I don't suspect this condition to last for very long.



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USD/CHF - Produced a text book 'Triangle/Thrust' topping formation leading a downward move into what is likely to be a larger ST consolidation.




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USD/JPY - Produced a text book Ending Diagonal pattern (expanding type - distributed top)




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AUD/USD - Elliot Wave and Candlesticks can be useful for identifying ST tops and bottoms, But the QG3 is designed to catch and land the 'big fish'. Our current Short position in the Aussie is likely to net a 'lunker' of several hundred ticks.



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Good Hunting,
Quad G

MMM Weekend Update 4-28-13

Gold - There is a technical situation that I have been aware of for a while now that has been reliably accurate in the few instances that I have seen it in the past. Basically when the 3EMA closes beyond the upper or lower Bollinger Band, it's an extreme conditions that is always followed by a correction. I've never seen the condition last more than two sessions before a reversal occurs. There are exception to every technical rule but I have yet to see the exception to this rule.

An example from September 2011:


The latest occurrence:



So far the upside advance has hit a conglomeration of resistance levels from various sources coming tightly together:



The price of Gold has moved up into the Fibo/Full Moon turn date last week. If it is a successful turn date we should see at least 4 (total of 5) more days or more to the downside. If the price moves up above last week's high or 1485.22 then the turn date window is busted and a greater upside surge could be realized, possibly challenging 1600 in very little time.




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Silver - Is currently wrestling the price inside a 4 point channel. This could be a bullish base channel or bear flag. How the price deals with the 20DMA next week should determine the outcome. A daily close above the 20DMA would suggest an acceleration channel the upside is underway, but must stay above key support at 22.99 (lower channel support).



If this week continues higher and closes next Friday above $25.99, a major Harami reversal pattern will be printed, possibly setting a major bottom at 22.00



I've been teaching my subscribers about the benefits of observing candlestick patterns in the 1hr, 2hr and 4hr time frames and how to trade them effectively. Silver has printed some excellent examples of 4hr candles and their corresponding reactions:



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USD/JPY - Continues to wrestle with the prominent psychological resistance at 100.00. A potentially bullish triangle consolidation pattern underneath 100 threatens to break it soon with a resulting thrust upward into an Ending Diagonal. Such a pattern needs to stay above 95.80. The thrust up has a few measured targets, 101.50ish, 104.20ish and 105.54 (not depicted, 2.618 x wave 1 (8.15)+ wave 1).



The larger pattern is still being fulfilled. My long term bottom call from May 2012 is producing the expected impulsive behavior:



Update:


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EUR/USD - The QG3 continues to produce excellent trading signals. Subscribers were recently signaled to cover shorts to lock in profits in the vicinity of 488 ticks.




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Good Hunting,
QG

MMM Weekend Update 4-7-13

Gold - The fibo turn date window for April 4th to April 9th saw a trend move down into that date and saw a decisive turn on Thursday (4th) and Friday (5th) last week.

I performed a Time Fibo sweep for dates coming up in the near future. 3 interesting weekly turns point to a span of time between the week opening April 14th to the week opening April 28th. Weekly turns can get us in the ball park, but daily time fibos can fine tune the turn inside the weekly span. The daily turns point to a span of time between April 23rd to the 24th. A full-moon is also on the 25th. Those series of dates are right in the middle of the weekly alignments. So, a trend down into that 23rd to 24th window would suggest a bottom turn, a trend up into that turn date window would suggest a top. With a fairly large compilation of alignments, I would have to say that the turn date window should have a very noticeable MT reaction. I suspect that most of April could remain range bound between 1540 and 1620, but the month of May could see a significant trend develop, I think the trend will be bullish if price can stay above 1540.

Weekly Time Fibo Alignments:






Daily Time Fibo Alignments:









ST Elliot wave potential:





If the Elliot wave pattern plays out, it could set up a bullish iHnS projection:



Last week's daily candle stick pattern was also bullish:



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USD - A bearish inverted hammer was printed last week, setting up critical resistance at 83.49



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USD/JPY - Provided an excellent buying opportunity, but could be getting toppy soon.



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S&P500 - logged in a bearish topping candle last week on the daily, trend would be bearish while under 1573.66



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Good Hunting this week,
QG

MMM Weekend Update 3-10-13

Gold - Has hit my fibo turn date window (March 6th to March 11th) and showed signs of possible bottoming action last week.



Confirmation still needs to be observed with a break-out this week:



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Silver - Back tested it's previous break-out last week. Looks ready to rock and roll, but needs to stay above 27.93.



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USD-JPY - Looks very close to completing it's 3rd wave impulse, which would then begin a multi-month irregular correction before a final 5th wave push up to my long standing target of 101 - 106:





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AUD-USD - The Aussie is exhibiting some bottoming action in my preferred support zone of 1.000 to 1.0200 for a final wave E of a mutl-month bullish triangle (previously posted). Eventual upside targets could reach 1.2000+, about 1800 pips from now.



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Cocoa - I've been looking for a solid bottom in this market for a few weeks, I think we may be seeing it now:



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Sugar - Also showing signs of putting in a significant bottom:





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Good Hunting,
Quad G