Dow - The EU mess is still the lead item that the market's are set to react to. So far the stock market appears to be buying the rumor of a EU fix, while climbing a wall of worry. Perhaps at some point they will sell the 'news'. The Eurozone 'leaders' have done a masterful job of keeping hope alive from one week to the next with pure jawboning.
The Dow technical picture in the MT is decisively bullish while above 11,391. Multiple measurements, trend lines and moving averages provide a net of all kinds of resistances from 11,860 to 12,350, with a semi-tight cluster spanning 11,930 to 12,070. Friday last week gave a solid break out on the daily and weekly chart. Barring a major reversal early this week back below 11,391, the Dow is likely to move higher challenging the resistance zone between 11,860 to 12,350, all part of an attempted back test of the previous HnS neckline (currently above at 12,262).
The end of this week ends the month of October, looking at the monthly chart a very bullish outside key reversal could be in the making if Friday this week closes the month above 11,613. Such a strong monthly candle would be a buy signal for many investors, likely spurring further buying into November and December.
Also interesting to note: the COT data on the E-mini S&P 500 futures (the most traded of stock market futures) is showing an even greater short side interest by large traders, at levels not seen since just a few weeks before the Oct 2007 top.
Gold - A weekly close below 1643 would be bearish, a weekly close at or above 1680 would be bullish. Some lateral resistance at 1655 to 1665. A move above 1702 would allow PoG to move up to 1770ish or better. 1595 appears to be set up as critical support in the short term, a break of which invites a move down to test 1440 to 1510.
Silver - Key ST resistance at 32.00 to 32.33. Key MT support still at 28.41. There is a bullish CnH formation present that could propel PoS to a calculated target of 37.55 if the rim line is breached at 32.70 this week. This bullish pattern will die if 28.41 is broken first and possibly produce a fall into the $25 range.
USD - Looks bearish under 77.20 for the ST. A cluster of support is present between 75.75 and 76.07. A break of that support would open a path back down to 74.00 and lower and could change the MT EW picture back to bearish, possibly very bearish.
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