A the next support zone is between 1226 and 1308, with a sweet-spot about 1250 to 1285. With the next Fibo turn date coming this week (April 23rd to 24th +/-1 day and Full moon on the 25th) If the trend continues down into that date then a significant bottom could be forming for at least another Dead Cat Bounce (DCB), if not something greater (green projection). However, continued upward/sideways moves into the turn date window would suggest a top, with another leg down likely into May (red projection). An unexpected drop through 1226 would kill both of these scenarios to favor further downside.
Zoomed out:
In 2010 the market advanced through its 'point of recognition'. Which is often a point at which the market has gained greater confidence in the prevailing direction. With such confidence latter corrections will often fail to back-test its break-outs adequately. The market is now correcting down in an attempt to fill that void as you'll see in this next slide. Corrections are often 'janitors' that sweep up the disorganized crap left behind by bulls and bears.
Speaking of crap, the 'dump' that the bears made last week will also likely be 'swept' up by the market Janitors at some point. For example, The New York market has yet to spend anytime in the 1404 to 1480 price range since the dump. At some point relatively soon, I think they will.
If Gold does fall down into this weeks turn date window, watch for a potential bullish hammer on a weekly basis, it should look something like this by Friday:
We now have a 'Thick Black Line' TBL established for the gold market:
Forward looking potential if price can stay above the mid-channel line (dashed green):
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Silver - A triangle thrust bottom could be see this week. If true, the price should stay below 24.00 until heading to a lower-low.
There should be plenty of LT support between 15 and 21ish.
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Dow - Just piecing together some cycles and measurements. This scenario looks possible if the price remains under the upper expanding wedge boundary:
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Good Hunting,
QG
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