First off, I updated the MMM - Hot Links in the sidebar to include my market calendar for quicker access. The calendar also appears at the bottom of blog pages.
Gold - So far still only 3 waves up from 1702 to a new incremental high at 1920. There are some fibo relationships that target 1926ish, and another higher at 1977ish.
Critical support is at 1840, passing below that level could invite more selling toward 1750 to 1783 initially. The 3/10/20 is still in a MT bullish alignment and will remain so with a daily close above 1849. The triangle count I recently posted is likely dead as I have drawn it. There is another way to look at it as a tighter smaller triangle, but like I said, it's still very young, given time it will become clearly apparent if a triangle is forming or not.
Silver - Still holding up very well under these conditions, 41.50 is key support, 39.50 is critical support. If 39.50 is taken out, then a drop to the 36 dollar range looks very possible with a strong level of support near 36.85.
USD/CHF - The Swiss National Bank steps in with intervention. Sends the CHF cross-pairs for a loop. This event clicked on a light bulb for me: Back in the 1930s governments were protecting their markets with trade wars, adding tariffs and other protectionist policies. Even though today most of the industrialized world is operating under international trade agreements for freer trade, the nations are still trying to protect their export/industrial base with currency interventions instead. 'Racing to the Bottom' so that their goods are cheaper in comparison to others. All the while the free flowing fiat helps prop up gold. Gold in CHF has taken off and its easy to see why:
We can clearly see a triangle break-out to the upside. An idealized count could see gold valued in the swissy climb up to the 2000+ level in fairly short order. As the SNB sets a course to devalue it's currency, no doubt those holding the swissy will want to hedge with gold purchases.
Dow - Falls as anticipated, however, there are two gaps now in the daily chart (Friday and today). Don't be surprised if bulls give it another go and try to fill these gaps. IMHO, such an attempt is a fool's errand as stocks would still be likely to sell down again to lower-lows. Gap filling is not a requirement, but is something the market often tries to make happen.
Crude, AUD, Copper and Palladium - All look like they are ready to fall off a deflationary cliff at this time as they are all over shadowed by a previous impulsive wave down and only a 3 wave bear flag in return.
Good Hunting.
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