Sunday, December 30, 2012

MMM Weekend Update 12-30-12

Gold - Last week gave somewhat of a pause in action, likely due to the Holidays and end of year. With a New year starting this week, I would expect investors to move into their long term picks for 2013. If Gold is in the mix, then buying should be able move price above key ST resistance at 1683.54

The 20 month moving average has been a major support on a closing basis since 2001.
LT gold bulls would still want to see the month close above this key MA. If December closes below 1661 and January also closes below the 20 month MA, it would be an unprecedented signal that a larger correction than 2008 is in the works.


Silver - With more sideways chop this week, one more lower-low looks possible before a rebound.


USD/JPY - My Long term term call for a major bottom in USD/JPY is confirmed with last week's close. I suspect that further impulsiveness in 2013 with drive USD/JPY to challenge 102 at a minimum.

zoomed in MT EW:

zoomed in ST EW:


The initial interest in a signal service was good, but still short of my goal.
The Service that I intend to provide would use the 3/10/20 ribbon as the back-bone of the system with varying rule-sets for initiating entry and exit signals depending on the market. This system targets swing trades, significant runs that last more than 2 weeks. I am simplifying the method to allow for easy entry and exit points and adjustment of stop loss levels within a few hours of daily market close (between 3:30 - 4PST for most markets). This way, at the end of the day a subscriber can take action, adjust stops and leave it alone for at least the following 24hrs. Every entry would have a stop-loss not exceeding 3%, most stop levels would be between 1-2%. A trader cannot control the price, but he can manage risk. This system would keep losses small, cutting losing positions short, while letting winning positions run. At first I would provide signals for Gold, Silver and EUR/USD. After some further refinement I would likely add other Forex and commodities.

I can send the signals by email and eventually by twitter. I want to package this service with an important video describing the 3/10/20 ribbon and the trading method. This will still take some time. I might have it all together before the end of January.

If you have any questions or comments feel free to leave a comment below or send an Email to

Good Hunting,

Sunday, December 23, 2012

MMM Weekend Update 12-23-12

Gold - The price fell as anticipated this week into the fibo turn date window around the 18th, though slightly outside the expected support zone of 1640 to 1680 at 1635. A bounce developed before the close of the week, however it failed to confirm a significant reversal, perhaps just end of the week profit taking on short positions.
The 3/10/20 ribbon is still in a bearish alignment and will remain that way with daily closes below the 20DMA (currently at 1701). The bulk of recommended shorts or hedges from 1715 back on December 3rd should still be kept, though some minor profit taking last Thursday and Friday would have been appropriate after a 4hr hammer candle bounce.

A Double Zig-Zag correction could be finished or near finished, if so a rally needs to take out key resistance at 1683.54 this week.

I mentioned at Kitco the completion of a 4hr bullish candle that effectively set at least a ST bottom.


Silver - The week ended down into the bottom 10% of it's range again, so chances favor at least an incremental low below last week's low of 29.61. The 3/10/20 ribbon is still bearish, so any physical purchases should be light, then become heavier once the ribbon turns back up and bullish.

The anticipated target of 29.66 (61.8% fibo retrace level) was reached.


GSR (Gold Silver Ratio)- gave a higher than expected bounce as a possible wave C of 2. The ratio needs to stay under the LT trendline resistance in order for Gold and Silver to maintain a MT bullish trajectory. When GSR moves up, PMs are bearish, when it moves down PMs are bullish.


USD - A secondary shoulder may develop this week and next, while the index remains above the neckline.


EUR/USD - I mentioned last week at Kitco that the Euro looked toppy and could fall to back test the previous break-out before advancing higher. Any move below the supporting trendline is a hazard to further upside in the MT.


AUD/USD - A contracting triangle is near complete, one more dip to finish wave {E} may have started.

Gold and AUD/USD are fairly tight traveling buddies:


Corn - Price is currently working on wave C of 2. I suspect that if Corn bounces off support soon and recovers back above 735, a major bottom could be in place, followed by a rocket 3rd wave up that could challenge 1300.


I have a lot of spare time lately, my weekly job hours have taken a huge hit. I'm working on a video covering the details of the 3/10/20 ribbon and I'm considering a 'signal service', a monthly subscription($20) providing buy and sell signals across many markets with performance tracking. If any of you in this audience are interested, please leave a note here or contact my email at

Thanks much, all the best to you this week,

Sunday, December 16, 2012

MMM Weekend Update 12-16-12

Gold - More ST weakness is possible this week, with another dip deeper into a support zone between 1640 and 1680. However, I suspect that if a trendline break above 1736 occurs this week, a bottom could be in to finish the MT handle of the previous cup.

The action last week, posted a bearish candle which keeps the 3/10/20 ribbon bearish for the time being.


Silver - In the same predicament as gold. The top channel line is a key determinant.

Trade School - For those who trade ST, here is a very important indicator to keep track of on a weekly basis, no matter which market, silver shown for example.


Platinum - is exhibiting some bullish tendency while above critical ST support.


EUR/USD - Last week gave a very bullish impulsive wave to the upside. It's very possible that wave {iii} is under way with a breach of a bullish CnH rim-line.

Zooming out we can see how the smaller CnH pattern is part of a larger bullish iHnS pattern.


USD/JPY - So far has produced a picture perfect impulse wave to the upside, a few more undulations to go.


30 Year Bond Price - Moving up into a bearish rising wedge, likely a major generational top(60 years?) forming for this market.

If one were willing to bet the short side of the bond market, the ETF TBT could be an excellent vehicle. Though one more drop in TBT could be realized in the ST, once critical resistance (CR) is taken out, the bottom is likely locked-in.


Natural Gas - Hit $4.00 target, a large open gap below may act like a gravity well.


Soybeans - Have rallied from the bottom I called a few weeks ago to break key MT trendline. Key MT resistance is above at 1580ish.

Wheat - CoT Commercial and large traders are even while price hovers above support at $8.00

Corn - Key resistance at 745ish. A bullish double inside key reversal seen last Friday.


Have a great week!

Sunday, December 9, 2012

MMM Weekend Update 12-9-12

Gold - Has shown some ST bottoming potential last week, but the 3/10/20 ribbon is till bearish, so caution is warranted.

A ST EW count suggests a bottom is complete or near complete, which could usher in a 3rd wave surge up to 1806ish. All conditional on price remaining above critical support of 1672.69 this week.


Silver - Is in a tedious spot. The 3/10/20 ribbon is very close to turning bearish. Price must recover and close above the 10EMA to prevent a cross-over.


EUR/USD - The bearish collapse this week had some tell-tale signs. An Ending Diagonal (ED) is a weak 5th wave move that is often retraced fairly quickly:

I anticipate that this pull back is wave A of 2, a wave B bounce could develop this week.

A Cup and Handle could be forming, almost a polar opposite of what occurred in the first part of the year.


USD - The rally last week did have some advanced warning.


USD/CHF - A potentially very bearish long term EW formation would suggest that one more 5th wave down could be underway.

Since USD/CHF generally runs inversely to the price of Gold, an anticipated downward move in USD/CHF would support a rise on Gold price.


Crude (WTI) - Has some bullish potential, but price MUST stay above 77.30ish or risk a possible collapse to 45ish.


Thanks all for the support, much appreciated.

Sunday, December 2, 2012

MMM Weekend Update 12-2-12

Gold - Lost some momentum last week and threatens to fall further. But another wave down into the middle of December to test important MT supports could be a welcome gift for those patiently waiting to buy on dips.

Back in May 2012 I posted this Chart for my readers at Kitco:

PoG did bounce from it's mid-may lows as anticipated, from a combination of New moon and Fibo Turn date.

Another series of fibo turn dates are pointing toward the middle of this month and a new moon on the 13th. You'll notice that many lows have been supported by a New Moon and tops have found resistance near a Full Moon.

If a bearish trend develops over the next couple weeks, a whole series of important supports could be tested from roughly 1640 to 1680.

The 3/10/20 ribbon has turned neutral for gold and is threatening a bearish cross-over if daily closes remain below the 20DMA.


Silver - Still maintains a Bullish alignment with it's 3/10/20 ribbon:

With GSR (Gold Silver Ratio) falling while silver rises and Gold moves sideways/down. I wonder if some Gold is being sold and being converted to silver purchases.


Eur/USD - A possible completion of a 5 wave series could be seen soon. This would likely lead to a 3 wave pull-back.


Natgas - Has likely topped out after challenging my MT target of $4. It's possible to see a pull back to $3.00 to fill a gap left open. Key MT support is at $2.75ish.

The debt ceiling is more than likely to be lifted again before the end of the month, possibly another 20-25%. This will give the FED more room to print more fiat, the impetus for further PM ascendency.

Sunday, November 25, 2012

MMM Weekend Update 11-25-12

Gold - Another important long term moving average that has provided major support is the 60 Week Moving Average (WMA). There has only been two times in which the 60WMA has been broken since the run up from 2001. These breaks have defined two major corrections. If price recovers and regains a foothold back above the 60WMA, then another impulse is possibly in play. The next impulse in this series is most likely to be a blow-off top 5th wave, easily 2400 with a good chance of 3200+

The 3/10/20 ribbon is 'Wide-Open' to the upside. As you can see the 10EMA and 20DMA have become support on a intra-day and closing basis. Continued impulsing to the upside should continue to use these MAs for support.

The ST Elliot Wave (EW) count suggests a 'third of a third' 'point of recognition' could be underway. Key support for such a move is 1734.80.


Silver - Last week I posted that if 33.00 was breached a pop up to 35+ was likely. Here is the reasoning for the target:

The 3/10/20 ribbon is also 'Wide-Open' for silver, an indication of impulsive action.


USD - I suggested last week that a top could be in place, a resultant slide took place this week. It's possible that a significant right shoulder of a bearish HnS could be finished. A break of the neckline near 78.80ish could create a tumble down to 73ish as an initial target.


EUR/USD - I posted this chart back in May at Kitco. A bearish EW count mixed with a Bullish iHnS:

The Update adds an alternate bullish EW count. Critical Support for the Bull case is 1.2042, Critical Resistance for the Bear case is 1.4940. Both counts support an upward move over the next several weeks to test the upper triangle boundary.


Coffee - I've been looking for some bottoming action is this market for some time. We may have seen it last week with a gap up and Break-Out (BO) followed by a choppy downward Back-Test (BT) and back-fill of the previous gap up. Price and volume are at odds, thus printing a +ve divergence.

If 145 holds as support, I suspect that an upward move will test ST and MT resistive trend-lines above. Long term horizontal support is around 150ish. CoT data also suggests Coffee is in a long term over-sold condition.


Dow - Broke above key ST resistance at 12,744 so the previous ST count is dead. Key ST resistance this week is 13,040, just a few points higher.


Palladium - Key support moved up to 630.

Platinum - on a breakout last week, key support moved up to 1585.

Copper - Key support at 3.49


A few of you expressed your support for my work here on this blog. Your gestures are certainly noticed and appreciated, Thanks.