Sunday, August 11, 2013

MMM Weekend update 8-11-13

Gold - The New Moon turn date window appears to be a success with a strong bounce up. The dip was stingy however, only giving a low of 1272ish before reversing. Last week's bounce produces a swing low and key support for any more upside at 1272ish.

Gold has completed a break-out and back-test and is now ready to roam higher while above 1272ish:

There is a skewed neckline of a bullish iHnS pattern, which could project a target up to 1524ish if a neckline breach occurs this week.

However, any upside advance may have to tangle with a series of resistances above:

The EW impulse counts may look something like this in the days ahead:

If the resistance zone above is going to be respected, then a corrective EW count is more likely, as more sideways base forming plays out:

In a nutshell, there is more upside to be had in this market in the days ahead while the price remains above 1272. A violation of that level would suggest this market is still in a sideways/down corrective phase.


Silver - So far performing much more bullish than gold. The New Moon turn date window and a 61.8% fibo level at 19.12 provides the impetus for last week's tear to the upside after roundly defeating a MT trend-line resistance above:

I would not be surprised to see last week's The Break-Out (BO) receiving a Back-Test (BT) this week or next, the sooner the better.

Any upside run will likely find some hurdles above between 21.40isn and 23ish:

An update of my silver MT count suggests that there is still more sideways irregular flat wave (4) correction to take place before a final 5th wave decent. This bearish count would be in jeopardy with an incursion above 23.30ish.


GDX (PM mining ETF) - Is also looking bullish going into next week. Last week's low partially filled a previous gap before heading higher with another volume break-out:

GDX also sports a bullish iHnS pattern, if the neckline is breached next week, the price projection points to 35ish in the ST:

The week ended with a bullish hammer candle printed. This sets key support at 23.89:


Crude (WTI) - The CoT (commitment of traders)shows great sums of long side volume. This will certainly weigh on any further price increases. However, the near term rise has yet to see any signs of distribution like other past rallies have. This would suggest more upside is possible in the ST.

MT EW count, suggests a triangle/thrust is in the works:

ST EW count points to a 5th wave rise off a sharp 4th wave back-test, 102.21 is now key support:


USD - The USDollar ended last week at a critical MT trend-line support as a 4th test. The Rule of 4 (Ro4) suggests that anytime a support or resistance is tested a 4th time it has a greater probability of being broken. If true, for USD, a significant top could be in place with a MT downside move to be realized.


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