Dow - The EU mess is still the lead item that the market's are set to react to. So far the stock market appears to be buying the rumor of a EU fix, while climbing a wall of worry. Perhaps at some point they will sell the 'news'. The Eurozone 'leaders' have done a masterful job of keeping hope alive from one week to the next with pure jawboning.
The Dow technical picture in the MT is decisively bullish while above 11,391. Multiple measurements, trend lines and moving averages provide a net of all kinds of resistances from 11,860 to 12,350, with a semi-tight cluster spanning 11,930 to 12,070. Friday last week gave a solid break out on the daily and weekly chart. Barring a major reversal early this week back below 11,391, the Dow is likely to move higher challenging the resistance zone between 11,860 to 12,350, all part of an attempted back test of the previous HnS neckline (currently above at 12,262).
The end of this week ends the month of October, looking at the monthly chart a very bullish outside key reversal could be in the making if Friday this week closes the month above 11,613. Such a strong monthly candle would be a buy signal for many investors, likely spurring further buying into November and December.
Also interesting to note: the COT data on the E-mini S&P 500 futures (the most traded of stock market futures) is showing an even greater short side interest by large traders, at levels not seen since just a few weeks before the Oct 2007 top.
Gold - A weekly close below 1643 would be bearish, a weekly close at or above 1680 would be bullish. Some lateral resistance at 1655 to 1665. A move above 1702 would allow PoG to move up to 1770ish or better. 1595 appears to be set up as critical support in the short term, a break of which invites a move down to test 1440 to 1510.
Silver - Key ST resistance at 32.00 to 32.33. Key MT support still at 28.41. There is a bullish CnH formation present that could propel PoS to a calculated target of 37.55 if the rim line is breached at 32.70 this week. This bullish pattern will die if 28.41 is broken first and possibly produce a fall into the $25 range.
USD - Looks bearish under 77.20 for the ST. A cluster of support is present between 75.75 and 76.07. A break of that support would open a path back down to 74.00 and lower and could change the MT EW picture back to bearish, possibly very bearish.
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Sunday, October 23, 2011
MMM Weekly Round Table Discussion 10/23/11 to 10/30/11
Again this week I'll be pulled in every direction with little time for analysis and charting. I feel like a 'jack of all trades, but master of none'. Sometimes I kid that it would be nice to have a clone to take care of some of my duties. Unfortunately my analysis and charting fall behind, compared to my other priorities it ranks low on the list. From what I can see, this situation will likely last into the rest of the year. I will pop in to post some observations when I am able.
All the best to you,
Quad G
...
All the best to you,
Quad G
...
Wednesday, October 19, 2011
Morning Coffee with Quad G - 10/19/11
I know it's not morning in the states right now, but it's morning somewhere!
Much to cover today. Some of these charts were prepped yesterday but didn't have the time to post.
Dow - Not much has changed so far. The tops that I called recently are still good and the mid-channel that I mentioned is still holding as resistance:
The blue dashed line is what I call a mid-fork. It's often a point of resistance or support inside a larger channel. We are certainly seeing that line providing resistance.
I recently called two tops in the Dow and explained briefly why. Here is a chart to better explain:
The back to back gravestone dojis is a good ST indicator of topping action. And then a 5 wave move up to an incremental high (no break-out) is also suggesting a top.
That 5 wave move was also back-testing the previous channel that was broken to the downside:
Then yesterday and today we see the Dow attempting a 3rd time to break resistance:
Be wary of a potential 'fake out' today or tomorrow. That probability will likely die with a move below 11,430. The gap at 11,140 and the lower orange trend-line may give some support. I didn't mark it on the chart, but if that support holds and a 4th attempt is made to the upside and breaks the higher orange trend-line, then the 'rule of 4' would suggest that such a move will likely break out strongly to the upside. However, a solid break of that lower orange trend line and 11,104 should keep the selling moving along strongly.
AAPL (Apple Inc.) I suggested that one may want to 'sell the news' on AAPL. Their numbers were strong but they still 'missed' guidance, investors are unforgiving. In the wake, AAPL has put in an 'Island Reversal' at the end of a 'gap happy' streak, often a very strong reversal pattern:
IBM also displaying some topping action:
Overall, the market is looking close to confirming another significant turn, Dow down impulsively another 100pts since I started this post.
Silver - Close to filling out a convincing triangle wave {iv} with a wave {v} down to come which is likely a final fifth:
If this triangle is complete, then Key Support (KS) should be taken out soon, inviting a final thrust to the downside. The end of a final fifth would likely give an excellent buying opportunity, preferably $25ish. I think Gold will likely follow silver down and challenge 1500-1510, with an off chance at 1440ish. I would like to see the GSR (Gold/Silver ratio) not exceed 60ish. If Key resistance is exceeded (33.05), then the triangle denies the dowside potenial and allows for a move up to 36+.
Euro - And the USD, Displayed some good structure indicating a turn, Here is how it looked at the Euro end:
First clue was an (OKR) in the 2hr time frame at the end of a 5 wave structure on the back side of a trend-line that was once support but now resistance.......all coming together to suggest a top, at least ST, was likely.
Then the 4hr time frame added to the signal:
EW counting suggests a 5th wave is finished, a well formed 5 wave impulse, text book example:
The daily BBs were also provinding resistance:
And the larger picture shows the move was inside the multi-month support/resistance zone:
Using mutiple tools at the same time can help hone in on market turns.
Key resistance for the Euro is now at 1.3914. The move down so far could be corrective or something more substantial, not sure yet, but the move looks somewhat choppy. A move below 1.3440 would likely lock in the current top at 1.3914.
...
Much to cover today. Some of these charts were prepped yesterday but didn't have the time to post.
Dow - Not much has changed so far. The tops that I called recently are still good and the mid-channel that I mentioned is still holding as resistance:
The blue dashed line is what I call a mid-fork. It's often a point of resistance or support inside a larger channel. We are certainly seeing that line providing resistance.
I recently called two tops in the Dow and explained briefly why. Here is a chart to better explain:
The back to back gravestone dojis is a good ST indicator of topping action. And then a 5 wave move up to an incremental high (no break-out) is also suggesting a top.
That 5 wave move was also back-testing the previous channel that was broken to the downside:
Then yesterday and today we see the Dow attempting a 3rd time to break resistance:
Be wary of a potential 'fake out' today or tomorrow. That probability will likely die with a move below 11,430. The gap at 11,140 and the lower orange trend-line may give some support. I didn't mark it on the chart, but if that support holds and a 4th attempt is made to the upside and breaks the higher orange trend-line, then the 'rule of 4' would suggest that such a move will likely break out strongly to the upside. However, a solid break of that lower orange trend line and 11,104 should keep the selling moving along strongly.
AAPL (Apple Inc.) I suggested that one may want to 'sell the news' on AAPL. Their numbers were strong but they still 'missed' guidance, investors are unforgiving. In the wake, AAPL has put in an 'Island Reversal' at the end of a 'gap happy' streak, often a very strong reversal pattern:
IBM also displaying some topping action:
Overall, the market is looking close to confirming another significant turn, Dow down impulsively another 100pts since I started this post.
Silver - Close to filling out a convincing triangle wave {iv} with a wave {v} down to come which is likely a final fifth:
If this triangle is complete, then Key Support (KS) should be taken out soon, inviting a final thrust to the downside. The end of a final fifth would likely give an excellent buying opportunity, preferably $25ish. I think Gold will likely follow silver down and challenge 1500-1510, with an off chance at 1440ish. I would like to see the GSR (Gold/Silver ratio) not exceed 60ish. If Key resistance is exceeded (33.05), then the triangle denies the dowside potenial and allows for a move up to 36+.
Euro - And the USD, Displayed some good structure indicating a turn, Here is how it looked at the Euro end:
First clue was an (OKR) in the 2hr time frame at the end of a 5 wave structure on the back side of a trend-line that was once support but now resistance.......all coming together to suggest a top, at least ST, was likely.
Then the 4hr time frame added to the signal:
EW counting suggests a 5th wave is finished, a well formed 5 wave impulse, text book example:
The daily BBs were also provinding resistance:
And the larger picture shows the move was inside the multi-month support/resistance zone:
Using mutiple tools at the same time can help hone in on market turns.
Key resistance for the Euro is now at 1.3914. The move down so far could be corrective or something more substantial, not sure yet, but the move looks somewhat choppy. A move below 1.3440 would likely lock in the current top at 1.3914.
...
Sunday, October 16, 2011
MMM Weekly Round Table Discussion 10/16//11 to 10/23/11
I'm still on a busy schedule so updates will still be infrequent and irregular.
You'll notice that the ads are gone. Google AdSense has disabled the account due to 'invalid activity'. They didn't give me any details, just cut off. An appeal was immediately rejected. I can only assume at this time that some 'click-a-holics' out there thinking they are 'being generous' with clicking on my ads a lot have generated this 'invalid activity'. I requested that the hyper active clickers be banned from registering clicks, but it was ignored are is not possible, not sure.
I find it amazing that perhaps 1 or 2 clickers can shut down a whole AdSense account. No warning, just boom done..........Ridiculous.
Ads or not, I'm still here.
...
You'll notice that the ads are gone. Google AdSense has disabled the account due to 'invalid activity'. They didn't give me any details, just cut off. An appeal was immediately rejected. I can only assume at this time that some 'click-a-holics' out there thinking they are 'being generous' with clicking on my ads a lot have generated this 'invalid activity'. I requested that the hyper active clickers be banned from registering clicks, but it was ignored are is not possible, not sure.
I find it amazing that perhaps 1 or 2 clickers can shut down a whole AdSense account. No warning, just boom done..........Ridiculous.
Ads or not, I'm still here.
...
Dow - Update 10/16/11
The recent stellar run up in the Dow is amazing, not seen since the march 2009 bottom with regards to intensity. This has caused me to pause and take a look at the long term weekly charts to do a trend line study. What I found was very interesting:
We are seeing a bounce off what looks like a major epicenter of trend lines. Which sets up a major cross road.
Zooming out:
If the orange mid-fork is going to be respected with a strong surge, then I think it's entirely possible that the SM could attempt another higher-high. However, such a move is dependent on the recent low of 10,404 holding as support. Failure at that point would suggest a major channel break is occurring, allowing a drop to 8700ish and lower.
I imagine that the PTB are aware of this situation and are doing their utter best to keep the market afloat. With short interest at a high level, climbing a 'wall of worry' is entirely possible with a little help. The trades going forward are not going to come easily, likely plagued with a great roller coaster of volatility.
...
We are seeing a bounce off what looks like a major epicenter of trend lines. Which sets up a major cross road.
Zooming out:
If the orange mid-fork is going to be respected with a strong surge, then I think it's entirely possible that the SM could attempt another higher-high. However, such a move is dependent on the recent low of 10,404 holding as support. Failure at that point would suggest a major channel break is occurring, allowing a drop to 8700ish and lower.
I imagine that the PTB are aware of this situation and are doing their utter best to keep the market afloat. With short interest at a high level, climbing a 'wall of worry' is entirely possible with a little help. The trades going forward are not going to come easily, likely plagued with a great roller coaster of volatility.
...
Silver - Update 10/16/11
'What was once Support is now Resistance'.
I've mentioned before how $33.50 to $34 was critical support for continued uptrend and that a break of that level invited a move into the 20s. Now that it's firmly established as fact, that same critical support has now become resistance, take a look:
S/R zone #2 is the current area that silver is struggling to overcome, along with the upper blue channel line. If this resistance continues to hold, another drop is possible into S/R zone #3 (24.90 to 26.38) red projection. A lazy drop and hugging the upper channel line would promote bottoming action. If however, S/R zone #2 fails to contain price action (blue projection) then a shot up to zone #3 could be in the works (36.92 to 38.95).
Zooming out we see a larger trend that may also affect price:
The mid-forks of the larger orange base channel (which is blue in previous charts) is also adding to resistance, but the lower channel lines may provide support if another drop were to occur. Moving below the lower orange channel line (green projection) especially in an impulsive fashion, would be very bearish and could set up a challenge of long term support at $21 to $22.
Looking at the seasonal chart, another secondary low comes into play near the end of the month, from which bullish seasonality should help silver climb higher or soften any further downside:
Ultimately I would like to see silver stay above 24.90, gold stay above 1500 and see the GSR remain under below 58 to 60. If pattern, price and time match up by the end of the year, I think another major low will be in place and a surge back up to challenge 50+ again will be likely.
...
I've mentioned before how $33.50 to $34 was critical support for continued uptrend and that a break of that level invited a move into the 20s. Now that it's firmly established as fact, that same critical support has now become resistance, take a look:
S/R zone #2 is the current area that silver is struggling to overcome, along with the upper blue channel line. If this resistance continues to hold, another drop is possible into S/R zone #3 (24.90 to 26.38) red projection. A lazy drop and hugging the upper channel line would promote bottoming action. If however, S/R zone #2 fails to contain price action (blue projection) then a shot up to zone #3 could be in the works (36.92 to 38.95).
Zooming out we see a larger trend that may also affect price:
The mid-forks of the larger orange base channel (which is blue in previous charts) is also adding to resistance, but the lower channel lines may provide support if another drop were to occur. Moving below the lower orange channel line (green projection) especially in an impulsive fashion, would be very bearish and could set up a challenge of long term support at $21 to $22.
Looking at the seasonal chart, another secondary low comes into play near the end of the month, from which bullish seasonality should help silver climb higher or soften any further downside:
Ultimately I would like to see silver stay above 24.90, gold stay above 1500 and see the GSR remain under below 58 to 60. If pattern, price and time match up by the end of the year, I think another major low will be in place and a surge back up to challenge 50+ again will be likely.
...
Tuesday, October 11, 2011
MMM Weekly Round Table Discussion 10/11/11 to 10/16//11
Hey All,
Still a busy time for me. I have much to say and charts to update but have little time. Pardon the calendar, it has 'holes' that need to be filled also.
I will go back to last weeks discussions and answer questions soon.
...
Still a busy time for me. I have much to say and charts to update but have little time. Pardon the calendar, it has 'holes' that need to be filled also.
I will go back to last weeks discussions and answer questions soon.
...
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