Sunday, October 16, 2011

Dow - Update 10/16/11

The recent stellar run up in the Dow is amazing, not seen since the march 2009 bottom with regards to intensity. This has caused me to pause and take a look at the long term weekly charts to do a trend line study. What I found was very interesting:


We are seeing a bounce off what looks like a major epicenter of trend lines. Which sets up a major cross road.

Zooming out:


If the orange mid-fork is going to be respected with a strong surge, then I think it's entirely possible that the SM could attempt another higher-high. However, such a move is dependent on the recent low of 10,404 holding as support. Failure at that point would suggest a major channel break is occurring, allowing a drop to 8700ish and lower.

I imagine that the PTB are aware of this situation and are doing their utter best to keep the market afloat. With short interest at a high level, climbing a 'wall of worry' is entirely possible with a little help. The trades going forward are not going to come easily, likely plagued with a great roller coaster of volatility.


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