Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Morning Coffee with Quad G - 10/4/11

Mornin' all,

Gold - Currently struggling with the 10EMA, which is the first sign that a recovery is possible soon. The 3/10/20 still maintains it's bearish alignment, so bottom picks are generally small, exploratory positions.


A daily close above the 10EMA may be able to pull the 3EMA above, causing the alignment to become neutral, which may open up a shot to test the 20DMA (currently at 1739ish. However, looking ahead at potential candle patterns, a daily close below 1628.80 would signal an Outside Key Reversal(OKR) inviting more selling with a potential ST top at 1678ish.

The ST EW pattern is starting to remind me of the Bullish barrier triangle that was formed in late August. Still early to tell, but staying above 1582 in a choppy sideways action will encourage this concept.

Dow - Plenty of bearish sign lately:


'Hairy' tops and closing under the 20DMA has helped maintain a bearish alignment of the 3/10/20 ribbon. I see a gap down this morning after breaking into fresh multi-week lows. The Bollinger bands are starting to expand as the lower band is 'pushed'.

I mentioned the 78.6% Fibonacci retrace level on some ST rallies recently. I will post a separate Trade School article depicting their importance.

Bernanke is going to speak at 7AM (PST). This would be a fine time to announce a surprise to gin up the markets.


We,ll see....

Good Hunting


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