Sunday, June 23, 2013

MMM Weekend Update 6-23-13

Gold - Last week's drop in gold, Euro and GBP was well anticipated, even before Ben Bernanke opened hit mouth on June 19th. Here's how:

I posted this chart last weekend, showing the EW potential for another thrust down:



Here is an update to the count, and how it may play out in the weeks ahead while the price remains below key resistance #1 (1365.63):



Here is what my subscribers were being informed of last week before and after the drop:



My count is but one of two that I am currently paying attention to. Another elliottician (HoldemPlayer from the Kitco Forums) who I respect as an excellent Elliot Wave counter, has another count that is also a viable possibility.



Speaking for myself and not HP, I think his count could be complete or very close to completion. If true, the Triangle/Thrust bottoming pattern would be confirmed with an impulsive move higher very soon up above key resistance at 1365.63. Then a possible bullish iHnS may form through July.



We are in the 21-22 month cycle bottom area between now and July. I fully expect to see a counter rally out of this cycle, possibly to back test 1500-1666 in gold and silver could back-test 26ish.

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Eur/USD - The top in this market had many clues that a top was forming with subsequent drop:



Here was the Long Term resistance line that the Euro was wrestling against last week:



The top was confirmed with an OKR on the weekly, the same reversal candle stick pattern has played out multiple times in the past with impulsive results.

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GBP/USD - The top in this market played out a little different than the Euro, instead building an expanding ending Diagonal pattern:



This ST pattern butted right up into MT resistance at the 61.8% fibo retrace level of 1.5789



The Pound also printed a bearish OKR on the weekly chart.

Keep in mind that these OKRs in the Euro and GBP are responsible for many MT tops, However, if these tops fail they will likely fail with a vengeance, causing an impulsive short squeeze to the upside.

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All the best to you,
Quad G