Tuesday, September 20, 2011

MMM - Mid-day update 9/20/11

Gold - Produced a double bottom last night at 1769, I saw the return and sent an alert, but I doubt few received it in time. Basically it was a second chance for the night owls to get in at the prescribed buy zone. Gold looking ST bullish while above 1775. A daily close at or above 1823 today would be a bullish step to lock in this wave C bottom, but must keep above 1775.

Silver - The call for a double zig-zag bottom is still good from yesterday at 38.94, just a few cents above key support at 38.72 for a low risk entry. The Short Term (ST) key support is now brought up to 39.17, A drop through that level in the next 24hrs could spell trouble for any more ST advances to the upside.

HUI - The bounce off support (584) that I called on Sept 15th is now critical ST support for further uptrend. I still suspect that a target of 700 can be reached soon.

Natgas - I see what appears to be a triangle/thrust pattern to the downside, if so a reversal may be in the cards. A move back up above 4.10 this week should confirm the reversal pattern. This 3.70 to 3.85 area is an important support zone, dropping below invites much more selling.


Dow - Moved into a higher-high, killing my top call on Friday. However, the Bearish SsHsS (Head and double shoulder) pattern is still intact while the Dow is below 11,716. Take note that the financials (BKX)and the small caps (Russel1 2000) are not making higher-highs, and Copper is still caving as expected. A sign that investors are not in a serious risk-on mode at this time. The daily Bollinger Bands are producing a pronounced 'pinch', which usually suggests that a strong impulse is about to emerge. I still suspect that impulse will be to the downside, but if the bands instead start to be pushed to the upside as they widen again, then I am likely wrong and the impulse will instead continue higher.

USD - Attempting to fill in part of the aforementioned gap from the start of the week. That gap fill whether full or partial could be finished in the next 24hrs.

Crude - One more daily close below the 20DMA (87.45) will likely put the 3/10/20 ribbon in a MT bearish alignment.

It's been a crazy day for me, I'll post charts when I am able. Tomorrow is the big FED day, stock jocks appear to anticipate a grand liquidity dump from the FED, we'll see.


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