Monday, July 4, 2011

The HUI's Head and Shoulders

Back in April '11 I depicted the possibility of the HUI producing a bearish Head and Shoulder pattern (H&S) at the end of a multi-year Ending Diagonal pattern (ED):


In this update, the Head of the pattern ended as anticipated, just above 600 at 609 and has so far since fallen as a 5 wave impulse toward the right neckline, just below 500 and 490:



For the move higher into the Right Shoulder(RS) to be realized, we need to see a break of the foremost descending trend-line connecting waves 2 and 4. Then I would expect a choppy move higher keeping under the former multi-month supporting trend-line which is likely to have turned into resistance. 560 to 585 looks like the most probable zone for the end of the RS. Obviously any move back above 609 would disrupt this bearish set of patterns.