Monday, July 25, 2011

Silver - ST Update 7-25-11

Silver has repeatedly met my projection from the 33.37 low. Today's higher-high above 40.85, technically completes the Elliot Wave impulse pattern that I have previously outlined. However, the current 5th wave in progress can continue to extend with conditions.

Here is an older MT projection that I am working off of:


According to this projection, I was expecting an irregular correction [wave (iv) green] to set in after wave (iii) green completed under the $42 level.

The previous ST count adds more detail:


As you can see, the expectation was for the top of the previous base channel (orange) to serve as support as the impulsive wave structure continued to unfold inside an acceleration channel.

Now with today's ST update you can see how PoS met my projection:


The price of silver used the top of the previous base channel (orange) as support, moved into and irregular flat correction, and has now made a higher-high into wave (v) green.

Wave (v) green of wave {i} blue fulfills the basic requirements for the prescribed impulsive structure [alt :(v)]. However, the iHnS target of 44.31, in the ST, can still be reached. In order to do so, PoS MUST stay above 38.85 (dashed red). The proceeding waves may continue up between the lower green acceleration channel line and the mid-channel line (dashed green). Often 5th waves will move up with in the space between a lower channel line and mid-channel line, a sign the impulse is beginning to tire.
Upside resistance is at the 50% fibo at 41.00ish, and the 61.8% fibo at 43ish.

If Silver moves back above the mid-channel line (green dashed) then greater impulsive behavior is possible.

I suspect that once the lower-green acceleration channel line is broken another correction phase is likely.
If 38.85 is broken before a new higher-high is made above today's high of 41.07, then wave (v) should be complete as an alternate :(v). With such a move, the blue projection would suggest that wave {ii} blue has started and could move much lower.

As a side note, see in this chart how the 10 EMA of my three moving average ribbon helped maintain support in this impulsive trend:


In A Nutshell:
If silver can stay above the 38.85 level, further upside is likely, aiming toward next resistance at 43.00 and the 44.31 iHnS target. However, falling below 38.85 would likely finish this impulse up from 33.37 and set into a wave {ii} correction.

I want to reiterate a warning! if silver falls impulsively down under $34, and eventually taking out 33.37, a trap door could be opened, allowing PoS to drop to sub-30.00 and potentially head down to $22.00.


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