Thursday, July 21, 2011

MMM - End of Day Update 7/21/11

Gold - Short term weakness is expected into the remainder of July. While price remains below 1610, downside support zone can be found in between 1555 and 1562 initially. If a low does occur in the last week of the month, another ST bounce toward Aug 8th is possible. From this high, a final major low may occur around a strong fibo turn date 8/18, +/- 1 day. If my view is correct the 8/18 low should end this corrective phase and usher on the expected wave 5 blow-off.

Silver - still appears to be working on a wave (iv) irregular correction. If a neckline of a small HnS is tripped near 38.50, a drop could target strong ST support at 36ish. The anticipated continuation of the impulsive structure depicted in my last chart, should see another strong spike higher to challenge 43+.

SPX - Turned precisely at the mentioned fibo turn date, July 18. This current thrust higher depends on key support at 1325. A failure of support at that level, tomorrow or Monday, would likely elicit continued selling to test the 200dma again for a second time (currently below at 1280 and rising). Any move below 1258 at this time could fail a bullish triangle pattern, likely tripping many sell stops, setting up ' flash crash' potential.

USD - Moved below a key supporting trend-line and is now under selling pressure while below 76.00. Moving below early junes low should confirm that this bear flag is finished and wave {3} blue is under way.

Wheat - was rejected at resistance zone between 725 and 750. Moving below 650 would likely invite another strong move lower to test long term support at 500 to 550. Such a move would likely end a major seasonal bottom, with very good potential for a strong multi-month move higher thereafter.


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