Hey All,
I've been very busy lately with 'real life' so please pardon the absence. I'll tell you right now that I will not be around for coffee tomorrow either unfortunately.
I do however have a few minutes this afternoon to cover some markets.
Gold - Broke key resistance zone at 1780-1785 today, but so far the action has been quite tepid. PoG continues to lean on a supporting trend-line this hour with a lazy move up. I still think that gold is in a corrective mode, with the current wave up from 1723 being a 'B' wave of the continuing correction. Any significant moves down into the remainder of the week should be considered a final leg of the correction as wave 'C'. The daily fibo turn window opens tomorrow afternoon after the daily close and extends into the afternoon daily close on the 22nd. Any further selling into this time frame as a final wave 'C' of this correction should present a good buying opportunity. Further upside from this point in time exceeding 1818 (on a daily closing basis) into the fibo turn window would complicate the matter, possibly suggesting an early break-out toward wave 3 black (2150 to 2225).
Silver - So far the upside is not exhibiting the impulsive behavior often found with a bullish iHnS neckline break. Same as gold, I'm seeing a lazy advance higher leaning against a key supporting trend-line. The action today has produced a small triangle which may suggest a small thrust higher in the next few hours could be a terminus for the current ST uptrend. The daily closed above the 20DMA, but the 10EMA is still under it, so the 3/10/20 picture is still neutral at the moment.
SPX- touched the lower part of the resistance zone that I mentioned previously at 1200. 1180 looks like ST support at this time. This dead cat bounce looks almost cooked. I would eye any gaps higher tomorrow as possible selling opportunities. The downside target zone is about 1000 to 1050. There are a couple bearish EW counts that could play out, the one that I favor sees another panic drop to 1000 to 1050 as the completion of a 5th wave down and the right neck of a very bearish HnS pattern. The right shoulder (DCB II) may arise from later this month, perhaps after Jackson Hole. The right shoulder may move into October to December time frame on another injection of re-flation by the FED. we'll see. Again I restate, with any QEIII or the like that may be announced, I think the markets will react with pouring into tangibles as stocks receive the runt's share. Bond's would likely suffer some as well in such an environment.
USD/JPY - looks to be near the end of a bearish triangle pattern on the daily, clear as a bell. This too would suggest that the next 5 wave impulse down could be terminal, and quickly reverse, look for potential reversal candles on the daily and weekly. Downside target zone is 76.00 to 76.30 for a possible triple bottom.
Wish I had more time to post charts, but it'll have to wait. Good Hunting all!
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