Mornin' All,
Gold - I currently suspect at this time (check time date stamp) that This move up in Gold from 1700 to 1794 is a dead cat bounce. Bulls will want to see a lazy move down to re-test the lows of yesterday to finish a 3 wave move to the downside from the 1912 top. Many observe the gap that is below between 1662 to 1682. This should provide significant technical support, if PoG moves below that level it could suggest a serious problem for the bulls.
Silver - If my running flat correction count is correct, the low at 38.72 should be locked in. Any 3 wave move to the downside, staying above 38.72 looks like a good buy op in my opinion. Fibo retrace levels of 40.22 (38.2%, already hit with a bounce), 39.94 (50.0%), 39.65 (61.8%, should be the strongest support) and 39.25 (78.6%, is also strong support). The closer that Silver drops in 3 waves toward 38.72 the less risk that a long position trade will incur. If we see that type of move that I am suggesting, the next wave up should quickly advance back up to 43+, at which point 41.15 will become key support.
Dow - looks like it is working on a C leg of an ABC corrective pattern to the upside. 11,500 to 11,862 is the resistance zone. I still maintain that major downside risk in this market is available. I think any further upside will likely end before the close of next week. If some sort of QE3 is offered this weekend at Jackson Hole, I do not think it will be enough and the majority of speculators will eat up commodities, leaving scraps for the stock market. No QE3 suggests more deflation sets in, and risk-off trades receive the most attention (gold, treasuries, cash).
USD - Daily chart shows a slightly falling wedge which looks bullish while above 73.30. USD moving above 76.72 would be a decisive show of strength. Moving below 72.70 would invite a test of the 2008 lows at 70.80.
Good Hunting.
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