Mornin' all,
Gold - Closed yesterday above the 3 EMA. When a Market is in an impulse moving higher, with the 3EMA/10EMA/20DMA ribbon in a bullish alignment, daily closes above the 3 EMA indicates the market is churning right along into it's strong impulse. The first sign of concern under such conditions is any price move below the 10 EMA. Closing the day below the 10 EMA may warrant some action. Otherwise, the current trend as you see it appears to be in 'cruise' mode to the upside. On the weekly chart, we can see that Gold continues to bend the parabolic envelope as the trend takes on yet another steeper trajectory. The increasing parabola is supported now at a lower trend-line currently below at 1521 and rising about $7 a week. With the 1645 to 1660 area breached, the EW measurements to the upside target 1688 initially, 1711 and 1741 in the ST.
Silver - The EW pattern is technically complete, but the current 5th wave can extend further while above 39.02. The other support levels to pay attention to are the 10 EMA and 20EMA especially (currently below at 39.39 and rising). 43+ is still the target.
Crude - As previously suggested, the waning top at 100.60 has allowed a drop to the $90 range again after breaking ST support at 93.50ish. Crude is currently in an acceleration channel to the downside, breaking the $90 invites an attempt to fill the large price gap from 86.62 set back in Feb '11
USD/JPY - BOJ currency intervention causing a market anomaly larger than the initial impact of the recent massive earthquake. If the regular market respects this intervention, USD/JPY has key support at 77.82. These kinds of moves are suspect, the regular market often punishes these attempts at intervention, so be careful.
TBT - Produced a bullish red hammer candle yesterday, it could mark a bottom, but needs confirmation today with a daily close above 29. What was once support is now resistance at 32. A daily close above 32 would be very bullish at this time.
SPX - In conjunction with the bond market stall, produced a very strong white hammer candle with high volume yesterday. Popping up from the support zone mentioned at 1225 to 1250. SPX ending the day at the HnS neckline. First over-head resistance beyond the neckline comes in at the 200DMA at 1286 and the 10 EMA at 1292. If the market is going to respect yesterday's back-test of the neckline and falls again below the intra-day low of the hammer candle, this suggests that stocks are in full capitulation mode and could easily run down to 1130ish.
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