Sunday, August 28, 2011

Trade School - Gold 8/28/11

On Friday I saw PoG come up to test the underside of the 10EMA at about 1795ish, The action was starting to look like a rounded head, potentially bearish at a key resistance level (the 10EMA). However, a ST move suggested that a potential to break higher was possible, here is what it looked like:


PoG gave a triple bottom at 1763 with a higher high above 1795, this was a signal that gold could break the 10EMA and move up to the next resistance near 1823.

Here is a zoomed in view of the action:


After my comment at 7:28AM (PST) PoG came down and gave 3 relatively small risk entry points between 1769 and 1775, longs at this point would have risked $6 to $12, for a chance to test 1823. That was an approximate Risk/Reward/Ratio of 1:4 which is very good, 1:3 or better is usually worth while.

This trade could have fell apart, no guarantees, however, the risk was well defined and small. If the blue projection would have played out instead, you would have seen 1763 break likely with a large influx of volume as Stop Losses (SL) are hit. Perhaps a good place to 'flip a trade' quickly go from long to short (ST day trades only, IMHO.) An example of 'flipping a trade' would have looked something like this:
-long position, 3 contracts at 1773.
-SL at 1762 selling 4 contracts.
-Of the 4 contracts, 3 exit the long position for a loss, but 1 new short position is also added to take advantage of any further downside on the break of 1763. The number of contracts can be adjusted as desired.

The 1823 level was breached and the day closed well above the 10EMA, a very bullish move.


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