Hey all, I've been crazy busy lately with other priorities and haven't had much time to respond and chart. I have a very irregular schedule, but most of the time I have an hour in the morning to look at the markets, but not enough time to chart. So 'Morning Coffee with Quad G' will be an occasional segment that I will produce in my waking hours to keep everyone up to date on my market point of view.
First off Gold - Nice fear driven spike right through a critical area. Please do me all a favor and go right now to your charts......now apply the 10 EMA moving average to it. Now look at the daily chart.......what do you see? What have I said about the 10 EMA before? Do technicals matter?.....you be the judge. Again, if the 3/10/10 ribbon is clearly open to the upside or downside the market is in an impulse. Generally, MT positioning should have trail stops comfortably below that level. There are other disciplines to use with trading, but how the market interacts with the 10 EMA often directs MT positioning. ST positioning is different, ST is for higher-frequency day trading moves, where nimbleness is required. ST positions are your 'feelers', bottom or top pickers, mostly using 3 small positions. But MT positioning is for the swing trade and momentum moves, different rules apply with the 10 EMA as a deciding factor.
And I need to repeat, Elliot Wave gives a view of what might be, but any and all MT projections have to pass muster with the 10 EMA. It is the first gate keeper for any EW count. The 20DMA is also important, but we'll talk about it another time. With 1660 clearly breached further upside could stretch to 1760, but again needs to stay above the 10EMA (currently 1624 and climbing). EW key support is at 1628.
Silver - Gave a bit of a fake out move below 39.25, stretching down to 39.02 before recovering. The 3/10/20 contracted a little with the 3EMA almost touching the 10EMA, but is still in good shape as the ribbon is now expanding with a daily close back above the 3EMA. 43+ is still the goal, but price needs to stay above 39.02 and the 20 DMA which is right there at 39.08 and climbing.
SPX - I mentioned that the 200DMA was key and a break of that level would likely cause a flash crash, and sure enough down it went. What was once support is now resistance. Look also at the 10EMA in this market, provided perfect resistance along with the 50DMA a couple days ago. Volumes are reaching 'panicky' levels, so a ST turn may be coming soon. Support exists between 1225 and 1250.
US30Ybond - A 'panic' move for sure, way below the lower Bollinger Band, don't be surprised to see the market calm down a bit and recover back above the lower BB on the daily. TBT and the polar opposite TLT, both experienced 'panic' levels of volume. These type of high volume moves can often exhaust themselves quickly. $29 to $30 was my support level for TBT which broke yesterday going just a bit outside to 28.95. Panics will often push the envelope, today's action will be a bit more telling.
Wheat and Corn - Produced a bull flag through the second half of July, and has now popped above that flag. Wheat looks bullish while above 670, with a measured move target to the upside near 8.00 in the ST. Corn looks bullish above 6.85 and could target 7.75 to 8.00 in the ST. If you take a look at my Corn article posted a couple weeks ago, you'll see that the flat correction (black projection) appears to be playing out.
Soybeans - Take a look at that huge bull flag, looking ripe for a pop to the upside. Soybeans produce a small seasonal low in mid-August and a stronger seasonal low in late Sept/ early Oct. Perhaps good places to buy the dips. The 2008 top could be challenged later this year, and a measurement suggests that a price of 2000 is obtainable.
Times up.....gotta fly.....Duty calls..........
till next time....Good Hunting.
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