Friday, August 12, 2011

Morning Coffee with Quad G - 8/12/11

Gold - I see a stand alone impulse, 5 waves down from 1814. A stand alone impulse typically implies that another 5 waves down is needed to complete the minimum basic requirements for any EW pattern, whether a correction or new larger impulse down. One 5 waves series without an attachment to other structures is not allowed. I think a 3 wave move is near complete to the upside, and the second 5 wave impulse down should start soon, targeting a support zone between 1640 and 1682.

Silver - Looks like it's working on a ST bearish triangle pattern on the 2hr chart. I suspect that this is a B wave, with C wave down to follow either today or early next week, targeting 35-36. This bearish triangle pattern requires silver to stay below 39.80. If 39.80 is taken out, an iHnS that can also be observed may cause silver to propel higher to $42.50ish as an initial target. Silverrex has done a good job of depicting my thoughts and other possibilities here: https://www.kitcomm.com/showpost.php?p=1464351&postcount=15515

His chart:
(click on chart for full view)

The Red projection basically reflects the corrective count including the triangle I mentioned. Silver has a fairly broad turn date window for early next week, starting Sunday afternoon at open to Thursday afternoon close on the 18th. The trend is currently down into this fibo turn date window, this could become a very significant bottom.

USD - Still appears to be working on a bear flag while below 76.72, Moving sharply below 73.40 should indicate that a 3rd wave down has started.

Natgas - Wave C of (D) depicted here: http://majormarketmovements.blogspot.com/search/label/Natural%20Gas looks complete, now upward toward wave (E), target range 4.30 to 4.80. E waves of a triangle can often truncate, meaning that they will fall short of hitting the upper triangle boundary before starting the break of the triangle, in this case to the downside.

SPX - squarely into the suspected dead-cat bounce. A choppy move higher may be observed toward 1200+ into next week. If Gold is scheduled to turn significantly higher next week into September, the it's possible that stocks could start another major run down.

Good Hunting.


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